Will Trump get "Liz Trussed" by the markets in 2025? (if he wins)

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Ṁ5170

Jan 21

chance

ALL

This market resolves Yes if:

Trump releases or begins to implement some sort of economic plan (e.g. tariffs)
The stock or bond markets crash in response
Trump does not implement the announced plans due to the market crash

This market resolves N/A if Trump does not assume the presidency in 2025.

Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
- The market will not resolve NO under any circumstance until January 1, 2026.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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27d

@SaviorofPlant will you wait for the market response on Monday to Trump's tariff EO on Canada + Mexico and resolve NO in case no crash takes place? What would it take to resolve the market otherwise?

26d

@aleven this market will not resolve NO under any circumstance until january 1 2026

26d

@SaviorofPlant oh right, I guess the title should have made it clear, got fooled by the close date

4mo

If he just never implements the tariffs at all, does this resolve NO OR NA?

4mo

@Enlil Resolves NO unless some other policy (mass deportations?) satisfies the criteria

reposted

Trump's announced tariff plans are so ridiculously bad that I think this is a realistic possibility 🙃

I will not trade on this market though (since there's some subjectivity in resolution), except a 1 mana trade to increase the number of traders

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

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