Will Frank Abagnale be charged with a fraud (or similar) by 2030?
Will Frank Abagnale be charged with a fraud (or similar) by 2030?
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3
Ṁ222029
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For context read the intro on his Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Abagnal.
Resolves YES if he's charged with a crime related to false or exaggerated claims about his past as a succesfull con man. Unrelated charges do not count towards a YES resolution. Resolves NO on Jan 1, 2030, or on death.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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