Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
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Ṁ3670resolved Feb 1
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https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 80% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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