Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
Plus
18
Ṁ6732028
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Anthropic is developing powerful AI systems which may be powerful enough to cause human extinction, by misuse or by misalignment.
Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Anthropic has a higher chance than OpenAI? https://manifold.markets/SimeonCampos/will-openai-cause-human-extinction
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will OpenAI cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
4% chance
Will Anthropic collapse or be poached/acquired by Aug 2025? (Ed Zitron's prediction)
4% chance
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
3% chance
Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?
What will be the next major event for Anthropic?
Will Humans become extinct in 2300?
50% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
41% chance
Will Humans become extinct in 2400?
64% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
21% chance