This market resolves as "Yes" if, from now to December 31, 2030, scientists will manage to successfully revive an extinct species, leading to the birth or creation of at least one living specimen.
The species must have been declared extinct prior to this revival.
The newly born animal has to stay alive for at least one month.
Success must be documented and validated through peer-reviewed scientific research, official statements from credible scientific institutions, or announcements in major scientific journals or media outlets.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
Scientists may modify existing animal embryos, changing their genetic code to that of an extinct species to achieve revival.
The modified animal must stay alive for at least one month.
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3.00How are you defining "revive", "extinct" and "species"? Even people working on this are clear that the best we can hope for is modifying an existing animal to make it more similar to an extinct one
@JacobAron if scientists modify an existing animal embryo, changing their genetic code to that of an extinct animal, claim it was revived and the animal stays alive for 1 month, I'll resolve it true
@SimoneRomeo got it - in the case I would say what you are asking for is impossible and will go for no!
@JacobAron I think I caused some confusion. If what described in the section gene editing of this page actually happens, I'll count it as true
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth
@SimoneRomeo As that says, the best case scenario is a modified elephant with mammoth-like traits - it is not thought possible to fully change the genome of one organism into another
I was going through my portfolio and noticed this had drifted cheap. I did review the efforts I am aware of in this space and it seems like things are on track for 2027
I'm guessing this excludes animals which usually have a lifespan of less than a month? (Mosquitos/bacteria/fungi/etc)
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What is this?
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How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00