Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

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2029

95%

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

91%

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

90%

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

87%

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

86%

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

82%

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

79%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

79%

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

78%

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

77%

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

76%

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

75%

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

75%

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

74%

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

74%

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

72%

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

71%

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

70%

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

69%

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

69%

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.

I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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opened a Ṁ50 YES at 49% order

what does « trumps approval rating » by 2026 midterms mean? Because technically it means that if trump reaches the approval rating at any point between the question creation and midterm 2026 the question should resolve to yes. So I don’t get the current odds….

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