If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
Basic
6
Ṁ2562030
2%
Metformin
27%
Calorie restriction
11%
Rapamycin
59%
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How exactly will 'calorie restriction' resolve- I think 'eating less calories' would measurably increase lifespan if the whole US population did it, because a lot of it is obese?
@MartinModrak Alyssa Vance says on the other market that this one is conditioned on:
> Any effect size counts, as long as the trial clearly shows that it actually exists. (In practice, very small effect sizes would be impossible to show in this way, because the sample size goes as the inverse square of the effect size. So a treatment which extended life one week would be impossible to prove, because you'd need zillions of people.)
If statins already have such a trial, that would be interesting; seems that it would count as a YES resolution for that market and a Statins resolution for this market, though I'm following Alyssa's resolution there.
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