If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
Basic
6
Ṁ256
2030
2%
Metformin
27%
Calorie restriction
11%
Rapamycin
59%
Other

Resolves according to the intervention in the study that causes this market to resolve YES, if it resolves YES, and N/A otherwise.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

How exactly will 'calorie restriction' resolve- I think 'eating less calories' would measurably increase lifespan if the whole US population did it, because a lot of it is obese?

1y

10k no limit on rapamycin 1 day only

1y

How much an improvement do you need? E.g. would statins qualify if they weren't already known?

1y

@MartinModrak Alyssa Vance says on the other market that this one is conditioned on:
> Any effect size counts, as long as the trial clearly shows that it actually exists. (In practice, very small effect sizes would be impossible to show in this way, because the sample size goes as the inverse square of the effect size. So a treatment which extended life one week would be impossible to prove, because you'd need zillions of people.)

If statins already have such a trial, that would be interesting; seems that it would count as a YES resolution for that market and a Statins resolution for this market, though I'm following Alyssa's resolution there.

What if there are multiple qualifying studies by 2030?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules