Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]
Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]
➕
Plus
173
Ṁ30k
2030
18%
chance

The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in an office?

This resolves yes if they die in an office.

Dictionary definition:

a room, set of rooms, or building used as a place for commercial, professional, or bureaucratic work.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES3mo

Election is over. Will Trump die in an office??

7mo

Odds are a bit lower now that Biden is out

9mo

Feeling duped!

9mo

NA this tbh

bought Ṁ50 NO9mo

i believe it is standard English to say "in an office".

9mo

This is an intentionally deceptive market title designed to mislead people into thinking that they’re betting on whether the next President will die while still President.

I thought this sort of thing was discouraged in the new Manifold?

9mo

@SimonGrayson Everyone get on the ground, it's the fun police!

9mo

Headline: The former president dies in bed after long term illness, having recently turned his bedroom into an office to work until the very end.

@GazDownright he can claim his bedroom is an office but that doesn't make it an office. I listed my definition in description. Stop spamming same question please

@TimothyBandors It's the journalist's claim. Pun market needs phun comments. Stop being so serious about your pun market please.

9mo

@GazDownright I was only being defensive because I thought you were trying to throw a wrench into the funny. Carry on

9mo

@TimothyBandors Okay, I'll take some of the blame 🙏

9mo

What if the president is working from home or remotely? The president could die in the bath tub, or at the airport lounge, while workkng and having made this his or her office.

9mo

@GazDownright nope. Has to be an office. Working in a pool does not make the pool an office. I'm going with the noun definition.

9mo

@TimothyBandors Language is descriptive, not normative, the meaning of the noun is changing 😘

9mo

CAREFUL! I misread this as first as “die in office,” but this market is a pun. If Joe Biden is reelected and dies on an airport runway on June 6, 2026, then this market will resolve false. If Biden survives until Jan 2029 but dies in his office in his New Jersey house, this market resolves true.

9mo

@MatthewKhoriaty pretty funny

bought Ṁ250 NO9mo

Would argue a hospital room is not an office?

9mo

@JoeandSeth I would agree. Unless that room in the hospital is an office.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules