How many Super Bowl ads will mention AI products?
➕
Plus
13
Ṁ6221
resolved Feb 11
Resolved
YES
At least three
Resolved
YES
At least five
Resolved
YES
At least seven
Resolved
NO
At least ten
Resolved
NO
At least fifteen

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ai-super-bowl-ads-2025-fox-1236119070/

  • Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:

    • Every ad in the broadcast will be counted individually, even if the same exact ad is shown multiple times.

    • Only TV spots will be counted; other types of product placement are excluded.

    • An ad will count if it mentions AI features of any product. For example, a Tesla ad will count if it specifically mentions self-driving capabilities.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,145
2Ṁ83
3Ṁ44
4Ṁ19
5Ṁ14


Sort by:

The Cirkul ad mentioned a fictional AI. Not sure if that counts

20d

I didn't watch the game live, so I'm going to start counting now.

This seems like a pretty definitive list, so I'm going to go with it: Super Bowl 2025 commercials: Tracking every ad to hit the air during Chiefs vs. Eagles - CBSSports.com. But if anyone sees something that's missing there, let me know!

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 80% order20d

I see five so far: ChatGPT, Gemini, Meta, Salesforce, and GoDaddy.

So the options for three and five will resolve YES. If no one finds any others, I'll resolve the rest to NO tomorrow night.

bought Ṁ650 YES20d

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Your list so far doesn’t account for duplicates

20d

@JimHays Which ones were duplicated?

20d

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I believe there were two Meta Ray-Ban ads, two Salesforce ads, and maybe two GoDaddy ads

20d

@JimHays Thanks, I'll see if I can find a source to double-check that tonight before I resolve the rest.

19d

@JimHays Thanks! I guess Cirkul is a bit of an edge case, but fortunately it doesn't change the results.

bought Ṁ50 YES21d

I count at least 4 so far.

Open AI

Google gemini

Meta glasses

The McConaughey travel ad

filled a Ṁ25 YES at 65% order

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso I think there was a godaddy one!

If two identical ads air, is that 1 or 2?

If recut longer and shorter versions of the same ad appear, 1 or 2?

If there is an ad campaign campaign that appears multiple times with related, but different ads. Is that one or does each count separately?

Only TV spots, or would it count as an ad if there is product placement, for example, if we are told on air that Microsoft provided AI technology for certain video tracking shots of the game, e.g.?

1mo

Do they need to be selling an AI product? Or just mention one? E.g. if there is a Bud Light commercial that references Alexa, does that count?

Is a Tesla an AI product?

1mo

@JimHays Good questions.

  • To avoid ambiguity about what counts as the "same" I'll count every ad in the broadcast, even if the same exact ad is shown multiple times.

  • I'll only count TV spots, not other types of product placement.

  • An ad will count if it mentions AI features of any product. So for example, Tesla would count if they specifically mention some form of self-driving in the ad.

Is that clear enough?

1mo

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Ads can be dynamic by market (people may get different local ads, for example). Will you be tallying, and will your set of ads form the basis of the canonical count?

1mo

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Will it still count if AI is mentioned but not part of the advertised product? E.g. A Doritos ad where a character talks to an unnamed (but clearly AI) chatGPT-like product, but where the chatbot is not being advertised?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules