Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ51,000 @sophiawisdom
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ52,000 @Bayesian
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk
Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam
Total: Ṁ411,000
Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679 (short term loans not included)
Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ772,000
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
1,000
3.00
@Tumbles what sort of interest rate do you normally get offered? I'd consider something like 20k now for 40k in 6 months, but I'm aware that's quite steep
@Fion @AndrewG @ScipioFabius The more dire a position @Tumbles is in, the more he will have to go to shadier and shadier loan sharks, who charge higher and higher interest rates. Please charge 100% interest. That would make my day.
Game theory: Should this market sit at 50%?
In theory, if Tumbles ever finds himself in dire straights, and nobody is willing to loan him out any more mana for a near due debt, he could sell his NO position to 50% and arbitrage that liquidity into a coin flip market, since those typically resolve once per day and have quick turnaround. He could rally everybody to bet into one big chungus of a limit order at 50% odds. We'd all fight one big war at the end of the world as the mother of all Manifold memes.
If he wins the flip, he buys back some of his NO shares with whatever was left over after paying the piper's debts, and this glorious cycle continues.
If he busts on the coin flip, Tumbles would be dead in the water either way. What is there to lose?
Ergo, we should all bet this market up to 50% in anticipation of this move and extract the profit before Tumbles can. This only works so long as Tumbles holds a net NO position.
(I'm not sold on this argument myself. Is it flawed? If so, where?)
@Quroe Reverse game theory: Sometimes there is an agent who is not playing the same game as everyone else.
My plan was to pay up to 100k as a gift toward Tumbles's loans if at any point he got the [Tumbles's loans outstanding] - [Tumbles' current balance] below 100k. After he paid off the 6 January loans I thought for sure it was going to happen, because the outstanding loan amount was 134k and his balance was ~25k. Before he closed the gap, he took a new 269k loan and it looks like it will be a long, long time until he gets back to the same point again.
@Tumbles Would you be interested in me setting up a coin flip market? Just tell me when you'd want it to resolve for your deadlines.
@Tumbles 1. lol at the maga shrimp comment. 2. who is the streamer im out of the loop lately 3. extremely sprry about the shrimp sorry to hear that boss
@No_uh The coomer gremlin (destiny). I don't know why anyone is surprised, he was always a sexual degenerate
@stardust if thats true and it was destiny (im not going to look it up my brain is poisoned enough with as online as i am already) then, i hate to say it but, this may be one of the only things were ever agree on blankspace lmao.
destiny has repeatedly demonstrated being a loser livestreamed online for people to see for many years now. 10+
@Tumbles I won't carry on here. Not the time or place. but to be clear, I think Destiny is not a good guy (kinda far from it) for probably very very different reasons than blankspace lol. least of all cause hes bi or was in an open relationship or whatever.
dont want you to paint me any way, but if you are going to id like it to be a different color than the one you paint blankspace lmao
@Tumbles Lol?? Where did I mention recreational sex? Just because you can't keep such things out of your mind doesn't mean you should push it on me.
See, I know you have a reading comprehension problem, but I didn't say that his sex crimes are "nothing new", I said that they're more or less expected from a sexual degenerate like him, or "I don't know why anyone is surprised", and I linked a source.
Christianity derangement syndrome!
@NivlacM Now that you mention it he did get naked and expose himself to the fish every couple months. It was disgusting, shrimply remolting