Will we see the construction of a city underwater by 2050?
Will we see the construction of a city underwater by 2050?
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This will resolve based on whether there is a community of >50,000 people living in a permanent, underwater habitat.
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Does it count if a currently above-ish water city (I'm thinking of Jakarta) adapts a small part of its area to being underwater? Of course the 50k criterion would still be required, but that's barely 0.1% of Jakarta's population.
@BrunoParga If it's >50k with housing in the underwater section I'll count it, even if it's an extension of an existing city
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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