In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
Basic
13
Ṁ4832029
95%
SNP
92%
Conservatives
87%
Reform UK
73%
SDLP
62%
Plaid Cymru
51%
UUP
46%
Greens
41%
DUP
20%
Sinn Fein
20%
Labour
18%
Lib Dem
Resolves to yes if the party gains more seats. Resolves to no if the party looses or has the same amount of seats.
Uses the number of seats “as elected” as benchmark and not any party switching that may happen thereafter. Seats lost in runoff elections do not count.
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If the 2029 election follows the pattern of the 2001 election, then the gains will be as follows: Liberal Democrats (most gains), Reform UK (second most gains), Greens (third most gains) with Labour losing the most seats.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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