Will the ICC or similar tribunal find Russians guilty of war crimes re the Nova Kakhovka dam failure?
Will the ICC or similar tribunal find Russians guilty of war crimes re the Nova Kakhovka dam failure?
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ556
2030
39%
chance

For this question to resolve YES, these Russians would need to have been acting under orders (or with tacit approval from superiors) of some official or quasi official army, militia, or other government agency of Russia, as opposed to an unauthorized independent act of terrorism or corruption by Russian Nationals. However I will presumptively assume that they were acting under orders unless there is clear evidence or statement by the tribunal to the contrary.

I will plan to resolve this by 2030 at the latest if there is no movement on such a case. But I will probably extend the resolution if there is a case in progress.

See also these markets:
Did the Russians (YES), or the Ukrainians (NO) deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Otherwise N/A)N/A
Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)64%
Did the Russians intend to destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if they intended a significantly lesser sabotage)55%

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1y

To summarize my position on this market with recourse to the realist/ "international anarchy" theory of geopolitical affairs and international relations: lol. lmao. the Hague is for filthy poors like Serbia or the DRC who can't afford to blow up the world.

1y

@Lorxus bought 75 marbles of NO accordingly

1y

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