What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES]
What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES]
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44
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98.6%
Length is over 500 pages
88%
A dragon dies
88%
Jon Snow is revealed to be the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark
69%
Word count is greater than any previous book in the series
69%
Daenerys arrives in Westeros (Dragonstone counts)
69%
There is an epilogue
68%
A character is burned alive
67%
No new point of view characters outside of prologue/epilogue
55%
A POV character (excluding Prologue/Epilogue) has exactly 1 chapter
53%
Benjen Stark will be found alive
44%
All living Stark children (of Ned) will survive
39%
Littlefinger will be killed by Lady Stoneheart/The Brotherhood Without Banners
35%
Daenerys will destroy the house with the red door
27%
Varys will gaslight Daenerys about her birth/lineage and accuse her of not being a Targaryen
21%
It's published after the author's death
19%
A PoV character sees a literal kraken (excluding dreams, visions etc.)
2%
Daario will reveal himself to be the same person as Euron Greyjoy
1%
Release date will be announced during 2024
What will be true of The Winds of Winter, the next installment in the A Song of Ice and Fire book series written by George R. R. Martin? Feel free to submit your own answers. I'll answer them as soon as they become apparent. I plan on reading the entire book as soon as it is released.
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Release date will be announced during 2024
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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