Linked to this Kalshi question:
If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.
1,000
3.00sweeps on this is at 49% and the kalshi offer is 40c. free 9% return americans!
@Bayesian ? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return
@Bayesian yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one dude can swing it
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance:
“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal employees to accept the offer, which would potentially mean hundreds of thousands of people.
The administration projects the buyouts could ultimately save taxpayers up to $100 billion a year.
The offer applies to all full-time federal employees, except for military personnel, the Postal Service, and those working in immigration enforcement or national security.“
Turns out the military and postal service are huge:
5-10% of the remaining employees would be 60-120k.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance
Damn, I think I might have been wrong on this. It’ll be interesting to see if this actually translates into the historically unprecedented rate of cutting needed for YES or not
https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/
Over the past five fiscal years, attrition peaked in fiscal 2022 at 7.6%. That year, nearly 150,000 federal employees left the government, with 70,000 departing due to retirement and 77,000 quitting their position.
Today, just 7.5% of the full-time federal workforce is younger than 30 and 42% of federal workers are older than 50, compared with 20% and 33% in the broader labor market, respectively.
https://ourpublicservice.org/fed-figures/a-profile-of-the-2023-federal-workforce/
At the end of fiscal 2023, 80% of the federal workforce was located outside the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. The locations with the largest federal employee populations were Washington, D.C. – 7.3%, Virginia – 6.6%, California – 6.5%, Maryland – 6.4%, Texas – 5.7% and Florida – 4.2%.
Hiring freeze, and some pressure work in the office, moving agencies outside of DC. Would get to 250K+. Hiring freeze and 2022 attrition. is -150k.
5.2% of staff are in DOJ. Halving that department would be 2.6% or about 50K. Tripling retirement with an early retirement plan would be 210K.
@brianwang did you account for all the personnel they’re going to hire? This idea of a total freeze is a mirage.
@NicoDelon I am saying the net will be a decrease of over 250K. I have provided loads of research, where the simple actions already taken (on track to fire all DEI, hiring freeze, 100% work in the office, even more DOJ firing) and some actions that I assume (offer early retirement, force more performance, shutdown various agencies, move agencies out of DC). If you want to say that the total hiring freeze will be lifted and there will be hiring then make your assumptions. I am saying just what they have done can be -15% when they follow through and additional actions can be another -15%. Selectively hiring gets back 5-10%.
@brianwang Put your money where your mouth is and invest more then. None of your yapping is backed by anything, sources nor substantial skin in the game.
In short: nut up, or shut up.
@SteveAcomb Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers.
If you cannot handle me providing answers to someone else then GFY.
I answered your question too. I did not want to provide more answers but you asked and Forrest asked and now you are rude.
Who can bet how you want.
I am betting how I want.
In short: GFY
I will also comment how I want. and now I will comment more just because it bothers you.
HAHA
@brianwang total investment: <2k
opinion discarded.
you can talk all you want, it just makes you look stupid unless you invest more according to your argument. With all your comments but no stakes:
If this resolves YES you look like you were either a coward who lost a massive sum for said defect or just a troll who was accidentally right
If this resolves NO you look like a buffoon who never knew what he was talking about in the first place but at least knew he knew nothing
Comments are for DD, not arguing. Just invest.
https://x.com/ShelleyGldschmt/status/1882957193902993692/photo/1
Federal DEI staff will be laid off within 60 days.
@brianwang see, you’re learning! good boy! that’s what a source looks like!
(Almost at least. Real adults link primarily sources, not twitter engagement farmers. Better luck next time.)
Primary source, for others: https://www.opm.gov/media/0gpnja24/opm-memo-guidance-regarding-rifs-of-deia-offices-1-24-2025.pdf
Don’t worry, we’ll get you trained to genuinely contribute to public discussion eventually. You’ve already come very far!
I‘ll keep putting on my smug liberal voice to bait you into replying and we’ll see what happens.
@SteveAcomb you went all in on this. you are going to get wrecked.
-10k per month from the hiring freeze.
@brianwang Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts.
I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my money.
@SteveAcomb It is a 2025 question of employment levels. There are no real statistics for months. I know this bet will pay out for me, but I am going to bet on other questions like the superbowl, stock price movements for next week etc... This bet is mostly dead mana for 4 months. Major DOGE recommendations are months away. But the first week already has actions leading to net -50K.
@brianwang So assuming you believe what you say: what, is 4:1 over 12 months not above your opportunity cost?
@brianwang Yes. I assume that the hiring freeze will not make a significant dent in the long run. Just read the memorandum. It’s filled with exceptions, it’s only for 90 days and then calls for an evaluation, and it’s going to face a number of legal challenges.
@SteveAcomb I don’t have to rush to buy it now. Because I do not expect your side to give up with things that will happen in the next few months. Just like the market for Harris did not collapse until Election Day. The market for Biden started collapsing when he debated. Evidence on both was accumulating but the perception and prediction market did not change until the inflection events. I expect the same thing to happen here. ..
Collapse looks like it is already moving and other directives (moving agencies out of DC, early retirement buyouts, defunding and shutting down agencies will happen faster than expected.) The offer to quit by Feb 6 2025 for 8 months of severance as steve has reported.