By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
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Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.
No: There are no publicly reported instances.
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And what would qualify as an AI cybersecurity system? Does it have to be trained specifically for cybersecurity? Deployed originally for cybersecurity uses? Does a generalist model with cybersecurity capabilities count?
Would a contained experiment count, like e.g. Anthropic doing model organisms of misalignment or ARC evals creating a concrete demonstration? Or does it have to be "in the wild"?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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