Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?
Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?
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In general conversation.
Doesn't count if someone can use prompt engineering or hacks around some censor to talk about it. The existence of a refusal to talk about Tiananmen square is sufficient in itself for a positive (yes) resolution.
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Just to be clear, these markets are about the protests in the square that culminated in the 1989-06-04 massacre, not about the square itself, right?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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