If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved?
If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved?
Basic
5
Ṁ1180
2101
98%
chance

Resolves YES if:

  • I find out that @IsaacKing is dead or incapacitated for at least a year AND

  • In the year following his incapacitation or death, at least 3 of his markets, or 50% of his markets that closed in that yearlong period (whichever is fewer), are resolved

Resolves NO if I find out that Isaac is dead/incapacitated but the second YES condition isn't met in the year following his death/incapacitation. It doesn't matter who resolves the markets; it could be Isaac's partner, Manifold employees, a community resolution consensus, a computer program, or anything else.

#Isaac King
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1y

What if he's incapacitated for 11 months, then dies? Would it resolve after 1 additional month, or 12?

2y

If @a dies or is incapacitated, will her market "If Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved?" be resolved?

2y

Correctly!

2y

@IsaacKing What about markets whose correct resolution is disputed, or ones whose answers I don't know? Should this be limited to markets whose outcome I can verify? (Or just count N/A resolutions as not resolved?)

predictedYES 2y

@a Up to you for disputed ones; I'd be lenient, personally. I just want to reassure people that most of my markets can be trusted to resolve correctly in the more distant future; I recognize there will always be some that are contested, no matter who's doing the resolving.

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