Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election?
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election?
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Resolves YES if states controlling at least 270 electoral votes have adopted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, regardless of legal challenges, by the 2032 presidential election day. Resolves NO otherwise.
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I’m pretty sure even when (if) it goes into effect, that if a state is being controlled by the party that won the statewide vote and lost the national popular vote - they’ll find a way to send the electors of the candidate who won the state
I kinda wish there are 270 votes in Compact states but the total is more than 540 so the thing is not in force. Like, Puerto Rico and DC join or something. This question would be ambiguous in that case. Or the last state that gives the compact a majority does so between July 21 and election day in 2032, so the compact is only in force for 2036.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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