might be resolved based partially on vibes / second-hand information, might resolve early (if it happens)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
YES will be resolved if:
3 reports of American homebrewers being arrested (considered yes on 1-2 reports depending on other information and the number of American homebrewers).
Significant actions making it harder or riskier to obtain HRT from international sources, such as a large fraction of packages seized or a significant number of arrests (>10) of people ordering from them.
A significant number of federal arrests for possession without a prescription (>10).
NO will be resolved if there is little enforcement against grey/black-market HRT.
1,000
3.00If they go after all providers of HRT, this would still resolve YES, right?
@Marnix
If they do little enforcement against grey/black-market hrt, it'll still resolve NO.
I'd resolve yes on:
1. 3 credible reports of american homebrewers being arrested (i'd consider yes on 1-2 reports depending on other information and how many american homebrewers there are (which idk))
2. something that makes it significantly harder or riskier to get hrt from international sources: large fraction of packages seized or a significant number of arrests (>10?) of people ordering from them
3. a significant number of federal arrests for possession without a prescription or similar (>10?) (I'm unclear on the legal status of this, but, they might arrest people anyways?)