(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
Plus
13
Ṁ5822030
58%
None (no direct annexation attempt)
5%
Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")
6%
An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict
18%
Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)
12%
Closes end of this year (2024). Resolves when China does something or in 2030.
If you think 'other' please say what you think in the comments.
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What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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