Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?
Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?
Basic
2
Ṁ70
2030
59%
chance

Models open sourced by large AI shops count as open source.

If OpenAI open sources ChatGPT, this market resolves to whether another open source model exceeds ChatGPT interest.

Addendum: interest is defined as search volume on Google trends. I'll use eg. "chatgpt model" and "Vicuna model" to distinguish between models and animals that share the same name as the models: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&geo=US&q=Chatgpt%20model,Vicuna%20model&hl=en

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7mo

Please define "open source".

Some comments:

1. Some organizations and people forget (or choose to obscure) that "open source" means being able to build the resulting system from the source code.
2. Therefore, an "open weights" model is not "open source".
3. What is the complete set of criteria to warrant calling a LLM "open source"?
4. At a minimum, the following are necessary: (a) source code for the model; (b) publishing all source data; (c) publishing the process/mechanisms by which fine-tuning is done; (d) any other steps necessary to replicate the LLM

1y

seems unlikely that ppl will want to lock up their mana for that long

also, what do you mean by “interest”? # daily users? some other metric? subjective decision?

1y

@SaulMunn interest is Google trends volume. Whoops forgot to add that clarification.

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