Intended as a superset question to https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/if-trump-gets-elected-will-prescrib-4f892f44d041. Prescribing HRT becoming illegal is just one way the US could become a considerably worse place to live.
I am a dual citizen of the US and the UK, so I could legally move to the UK, but would rather not - I have more friends and family here, and significantly prefer the US work culture. I do have many friends in the UK, but we're not as close as my US friends. I'm currently (as of writing this question) unemployed, but will probably get a job within the next month or two. I might be able to keep that job through a move to the UK, but might not.
Resolves YES if Trump is elected in 2024 and I emigrate to the UK during his term as president primarily due to decreased quality of life as a trans woman. Resolves N/A if he is not elected.
Feel free to ask any questions that would provide more information here
1,000
3.00making a tiny bet on no because it seems more likely and i like this outcome more, but i don't want to move the needle much (the % might be too optimistic right now). i'm pretty bearish on prospects for trans people in the uk, whereas while i wouldn't say i'm optimistic about the us exactly, it's a big, diverse place, and it's not as centralised.
putting down a bit on No as a measure of hope -- b/c imo trump kinda bends with the nation's zeitgeist as a whole on culture war issues (as shown for example by his more liberal position on abortion). i don't think trump would be as bad for trans rights as most other potential conservative presidents (eg desantis) who actually care about the issue to an extent. if the united states gets tired of using trans people as the butt of the culture war and moves on, i don't think trump would keep caring. but who knows