This market resolves YES if official investigation findings or credible evidence confirms that a Russian projectile was the proximate cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash that occurred in December 2024. Market resolves NO if another cause is confirmed (e.g. bird strike, GPS jamming, technical malfunction, etc). Resolution date may be extended if necessary.
Possible sources for resolution:
Official investigation reports from Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan aviation authorities
Consensus of reports from major international news outlets
Ultimately, I may use my judgment if it appears there is conflicting evidence or some gray area as to what defines "projectile" or whether it was launched by Russia. Thus, I will not bet in this market.
1,000
3.00Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said Sunday that the Azerbaijani airliner that crashed last week was shot down by Russia, albeit unintentionally, and criticized Moscow for trying to “hush up” the issue for days.
"We can say with complete clarity that the plane was shot down by Russia. (...) We are not saying that it was done intentionally, but it was done,” he told Azerbaijani state television.
@SirCryptomind if a Russian projectile hit the plane and that caused it to crash, then it would resolve YES