What types of Manifold markets should users prefer to bet on?
What types of Manifold markets should users prefer to bet on?
7
Never closes
Time value of money - all in on short fuses
Answering humanity’s most important questions - all in on decade-long questions

Help me understand how to best spend my mana.

I’m trying to understand a fundamental tension I see with Manifold: should I spend my mana on answering interesting/important questions in markets that may not resolve for years? Or should I try to answer more prescient, but less important, questions?

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
6mo

echoing what Matt said. long term markets are some of the best questions imo, but you're actually punished for betting in them in the current economy. maybe that will change some day, but your chance of having the best user experience and usefully affecting those markets is to put most of your resources into short term stuff

6mo

As with all things in life, there’s balance. That being said, you can “wash” your money through a series of short-term markets, and put some of your winnings into long-term bets.

If you put all your money into long-term bets, that’s kinda the end of the game. Your net worth will be fairly fixed (most long term markets have smaller and less frequent fluctuations), and you’ll just have the free daily bonus mana to spend.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules