Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)
Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)
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Resolves based on whole-year comparisons of National Crime Victimization Survey data (https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs) between 2022 and 2023, for "violent crime excluding simple assault," which includes murder, nonnegligent manslaughter, rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault was 2.91 per 1000 in 2021.
Will resolve as soon as I become aware that NCVS data for 2023 has been posted. Data for 2021 was published in October 2022.
Resolves N/A if NCVS data for 2023 does not become available in 2024, or if like-to-like comparison becomes impossible.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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