Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?
Plus
28
Ṁ18602029
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"pandemic" means the WHO recognizes the spread of the pathogen as a pandemic.
"engineered" means that the pathogen was altered/created by humans. This includes wild diseases that were modified (e.g. gain-of-function research).
the "pathogen" must be novel. For example, if COVID-19 were shown to have been engineered, this news would not affect this question.
The humans responsible for the pathogen can be any group; e.g. that includes leaks from labs, as well as the release of an engineered pathogen by a non-lab actor (e.g. terrorists, amateur geneticists).
The anthropogenic origins of the pathogen must be relatively certain; e.g. clear majority of mainstream press outlets, governments, and/or scientists agree the pandemic was engineered.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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