Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
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Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C.
This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2026.
For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
Same question but for:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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