Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030?

Plus

Ṁ20

2030

49%

chance

ALL

John Thune is the Republican Party's newly elected Senate Leader as of Nov 2024. As of his election, he is 63 years old. He succeeds Mitch McConnell, who is the longest-serving Senate leader in US history, leading the Republicans since 2007.

This question resolves YES if John Thune ceases to be the Senate Republican Leader (for any reason, e.g. death, resignation, ousting) before the end of 2029. Otherwise, this question resolves NO on 1 Jan 2030.

Note that the Senate Republican Leader can be either in the majority or in the minority. Ceasing to be the majority leader (by becoming the minority leader) would not count for the purposes of this question.

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
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