Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
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This question resolves YES if Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) ceases to be pope of the Roman Catholic Church for any reason before the end of 2025.
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bought Ṁ50 NO14h
PSA to Catholic traders not using aliases: betting here is specific grounds to be excommunicated. The Vatican does lurk on the internet.
@TimothyBandors The article you linked explicitly says that betting on markets like this is NOT grounds for excommunication under canon law.
bought Ṁ50 NO
Vote NO because I'm a fan of his. I know that's irrational ❤ but we may (must?) have hope.
bought Ṁ15 YES11mo
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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