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Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
Plus
70
Ṁ5066Mar 1
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United States' democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If the United States' democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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opened a Ṁ50 YES at 45% order3mo
Intense polarization and diminishing faith in government seem to be big factors.
opened a Ṁ200 NO at 67% order6mo
Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
Trump election chance = 45-50%
I don't understand why this is at 71%
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