Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
➕
Plus
70
Ṁ5066
Mar 1
78%
chance
Trump wins US presidency
+18%
on
Nov 5
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
opened a Ṁ50 YES at 45% order3mo

Intense polarization and diminishing faith in government seem to be big factors.

opened a Ṁ200 NO at 67% order6mo

Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

Trump election chance = 45-50%

I don't understand why this is at 71%

3mo

@Siebe The "data":

This is the Ecommunist, which is left-wing propaganda, and will 100% lower the index in 2024 now that papa Trump is back. You may have had a good point prior to election, though.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules