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Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
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70
Ṁ5066Mar 1
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United States' democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If the United States' democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
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opened a Ṁ50 YES at 45% order3mo
Intense polarization and diminishing faith in government seem to be big factors.
opened a Ṁ200 NO at 67% order6mo
Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
Trump election chance = 45-50%
I don't understand why this is at 71%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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