Help me reconcile with my betting mistake

No bounty left

I will award M100 each to the two best answers.

I made a really terrible bet on this market, betting M5,000 when it was at 70%.

It's really hurting me psychologically that I made such a stupid bet (probably because I am addicted to this website and my profit). I don't think that I want to leave the website, but I am also just very upset right now. I could have probably been promoted to masters if I wasn't so stupid, but now I'm probably getting demoted.

Can someone help me reconcile with my stupid descision?

Not to make excuses, but I bet on that market after learning that Sudoku was not going to resolve in October, so I assumed that nothing was going to happen. I didn't realize that the speaker of the house market was so close to reaching the threshold for something happening. I was not planning on betting on anything related to the speaker of the house because of how random it seemed, but I also was too scared and upset to remove my money early on when the market was still at around 70%.

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1,000

and

3.00

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+Ṁ100

Corny as hell, but count your blessing. In the grand scheme of things, this is a mild set back in a video game. Lots of people are in support groups for losing just as much real money gambling! Think of it like a video game, mild setback but you can play back up.

+Ṁ50

The mana you lost is someone else's gain, as a group, we didn't lose anything! You are not the main character in the story of the universe and that is okay (actually wouldn't that be terrible?).

+Ṁ50

Even if you always make good bets, you will still lose a lot of money sometimes, but you will profit on average

Easy enough mistake to make, and your net worth is still up on a week ago 👍

its literally fake money why do you care

honestly learning to take a break from the site is p healthy. not r an answer

i guess figuring out how your value system for these works. does promoting to masters now really matter?

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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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