1,000
3.00With this (and polymarket) moving towards slightly towards Allen, I found this from a Lamar All-Pro Voter, that is kinda bizarre to say without reasoning (maybe pre-empting a semi-coordinated split)?
https://x.com/markcraignfl/status/1878234658242011581
Such a weird market. It's only 50 votes + some of the voters released their all-pro + there is likely enough for somebody connected enough to do a deep dive that all sports books had to take it off (vs last year where they let the obvious winner sit at -15000 or whatever so they could still collect bets on the losers).
Plus if there was as much communication between voters as there was last year (49 Lamar was insane) then they probably know if there was a flip. So just so ripe for insider info (obviously Manifold doesn't have enough volume to make it worth it here).
The fact that all-pro was 30/18 but Lamar is still in questions means that something weird is going on/there is way too much coordination between voters. I don't think there is a shot for Lamar more 1st places, Josh wins the MVP? I can't see anyone making an argument for putting Josh 1 and then Lamar less than 3.
@StopPunting I don't quite follow your comment here. It jumps around a bit and I got confused lol
with your middle section are you saying that there is serious risk these odds on manifold are not appropriately reflecting the odds of lamar's winning? and that maybe that's because some insider info mayb be going around?
@No_uh yeah sorry it was a bit of a ramble. the odds here have been floating around the number some sportsbooks quickly moved the line to (~-200 Lamar) right after the AP all-pro vote (same voters as MVP) came out. But then they took the line off the books pretty much right away. My guess is that most sportsbooks couldn't earnestly keep a line out because there are probably insiders connected to enough of the voters that they would get hammered on volume in the correct direction (moreso than last year where it was clearly Lamar for a week or two before the season ended and before the All-Pro vote released). So the ~70% float reflects I think a response to the All-Pro vote last line move, not the probability of whatever insider info that I think is driving the "true" probability.
The line being taken off could be interpreted in favor of Lamar meaning they knew about the insider info which just confirmed the All-Pro voters were consistent with their MVP (4 of the 50 voters actually had different All-Pro QB and MVP votes last year) or that the insider info reflects a split from public information (MVP vote favored Allen, which seems close to impossible from the All-Pro vote) which would be impossible/potentially illegal to price based on their knowledge (I believe last year they still had a Lamar -15000 or something listed after the All-Pro vote, since no insider knowledge was particularly needed). And when the first sportsbook takes it off market, all the other have to also because the removed market indicates the insider info that would then lead to losses if a sportsbook put out odds.
I don't know how to combine the uncertainty of above into an actual probability, but if the probability right now only came from the AP vote, it would be like 95% Lamar (5% chance of enough voters flipping or more Allen voters putting Lamar 3rd or lower on their ballot compared to the inverse). So the best it looks like we can do is trying to follow the last sportsbook line that was available (idk if it got higher than like -250/-300 Lamar) following suit and removing, even though they are also just operating on speculation about what the insider knowledge is.
It's possible there is money to be made here (and on Polymarket) if you actually go voter by voter and read into their public comments. For instance, Aaron Schatz is a voter and declared last year that he thinks its illogical for whoever put Lamar 2nd team All-Pro last year to then vote him MVP (instead of who they put 1st team All-Pro), so we can pretty much conclude that his publicly announced 1st team All-Pro vote for Lamar will translate to a Lamar MVP vote.
@No_uh Rambled again. Basically: The fact that Polymarket (way more real money volume) and here haven't converged on +90%+ Lamar has created an almost self-fulfilling uncertainty that there is some insider info out there that could indicate something the other way
@StopPunting i appreciate you taking the time to answer. BOTH responses! that was very enlightening. I didn't know about those rules or maybe better said practices of sportsbooks taking lines off in suit to avoid potentially getting hammered.
Interesting next week or so for us.
@StopPunting both markets (allen one and lamar one) on both popy and here were moving substantially during and after their playoff games too (after voting was done) so i also hate to say it but i think there's a substantial amount of dumb money going around lol
@No_uh subsidizing unprofitable markets doesn't seem like a long term viable strategy to keep on making markets...you could always subsidize it
@StopPunting yeah look, no logical argument from me. but on the illogical side you are not accounting for the fact i value mana in my own accounts way more than in anybody else's ๐ญ
@10thOfficial from ChatGPT:
NFL MVP voting typically occurs at the end of the regular season, before the playoffs begin. The votes are cast by a panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters who cover the NFL, organized by the Associated Press (AP). The results are then announced during the NFL Honors show, which is held annually the week of the Super Bowl.
For example, for the 2024 NFL season, the voting would take place after the regular season concludes in late December or early January, with the winner announced at the NFL Honors event in early February 2025.
@dlin007 sounds like you should bet. also how did Lamars stats look like last year compared to Allen? Also who has a higher EPA/play this year? And which quarterback has a top 2-3 running back next to him?
@StopPunting not sure many voters (surely not even half) are deep enough into the stats world to vote based on EPA/play. Note how little of this type of advanced analytics talk ESPN, NBC, etc. get into.
But even those who do get into it will know that EPA/play will shy from putting too much stock into EPA/play for individuals, and rather teams. PFF guys, and others will talk about how they prefer not looking at EPA/play for individuals, even though QB's are such large parts of offenses.
Regardless, if you think people do look at EPA/player, then why would you think they are looking at the running back so heavily? Those advanced so deep in football analytics will understand runningback value is not as high as the general public believes it is, even with tempered beliefs from the past 2 years.
You're at odds with your own assessments. And this isn't to say I think Josh Allen isn't the favorite still. But I don't think your rationale is right in this case.
@No_uh oh I agree, and I think Lamar actually largely has the best advanced + normal stats.
TBF I'm just a Bills fan that thinks Josh was clearly the MVP by advanced metrics last year and deserved it (but didn't have the wins narrative), and Lamar might get it this year if my wanted rationale was used, but that rationale wasn't used last year (where Lamar was like 5th in everything and just had the #1 seed) and so shouldn't be used this year where wins/seeding matter, so it would be weird for voters to shift their rationale.
I think also since the playoffs can be random hell where stupid narratives are created (Lamar has had his worst games there, so Ravens fans know this well), MVP pretty much stands as the 2nd most "stands the test of time" stat, so it seems absurd for the last 6 years for Lamar to have 3, Mahomes to have 2, and Allen to have 0. Again, this is somewhat effectively calling for a make up call, but Allen also has his arguments for value (Derrick Henry, 9 pro-bowlers vs 2), EPA/play, less actually time to play football since the team has front-ran more games than the Ravens.
Burrow would also have his arguments in an idea world IMO if they had made the playoffs.