By the end of 2028, will any of the Merriam-Webster Word of the Year finalists be AI-generated?
By the end of 2028, will any of the Merriam-Webster Word of the Year finalists be AI-generated?
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The word must clearly have an AI-generated origin, and cannot simply be relating to AI (eg “GPT” or something would not count).
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For clarification, if 🤡7 were a word of the year finalist, would the market resolve to “yes”?
I think this is extremely unlikely, because that's not how language works; but I'm not betting because I don't see how one could possibly resolve it. How are you gonna know that an AI used a neologism before any humans actually used it in speech? Or am I misinterpreting the market?
@BrunoParga I don’t think it has to be like “no humans have ever said this before,” but the origin should be attributed to some AI model. For example “rizz” was a finalist this year and it is attributed to Kai Cenat, a Twitch streamer. If he had gotten the idea from some AI model, then that would count, for example.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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