Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), increasing 410 million tonnes (Mt) to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt).
Here is the graph for the past few years.
China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was greater than the rest of the world's decrease but some think it may be close to peak.
Will 2025 emissions be lower than 2024?
This market will resolves based on IEA's numbers when released based on the actual change in CO2 emissions between the two years, no matter what extraordinary event (like COVID) may happen each year.
I have created the same market for 2024, hope it helps adjust your bets!
1,000
3.00@RichardKnoche US has decoupled GDP and emissions growth with shale gas and renewables. China popped a property bubble and reduced GDP growth. Europe both decoupled AND stopped growing.
In 2024 it seemed like India's emissions growth made up for China's reduction but it's at least plausible that the reductions could win. I'm going by Carbon Monitor which has a different methodology to IEA (and extremely confusing graphs): https://carbonmonitor.org/variation