How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025?
How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025?
➕
Plus
32
Ṁ11k
2026
5%
Less than 10 cases
44%
10-100 cases
27%
100-1,000 cases
12%
1,001-10k cases
12%
10k-100k+ cases

On May 31st the third human case was confirmed, and the second in Michigan. All cases so far have involved farm workers with proximity to infected cattle.
https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year

Market will resolve based on consensus of media reports.

  • Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Only cases confirmed in 2025 will be counted toward the total. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-01-28 (PST): - If media sources do not provide 2025-specific case counts, subtract last year's numbers from the total confirmed cases to determine the 2025 counts. (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


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boughtṀ25010k-100k+ cases YES
reposted5d

@mattparlmer It seems like we haven't seen that many human cases recently, would you be willing to share what you're thinking?

5d

@ian I think chances of a massive systematic failure to test on the part of the health authorities are very high

5d

@mattparlmer Agree, but it'll take documented human-human transmission to hit those numbers, I think.

4d

@mattparlmer Apparently the people in charge of testing were just fired:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna192420

But if we don't do any testing, how would we reach 10k confirmed cases?

4d

@mattparlmer is there any evidence of that?

14d

Two cases since the new year.

29d

How will you resolve if the media doesn’t break down case counts by year? According to the CDC, if I recall correctly, there were 66 human cases at the end of 2024. Since then there has been one case. According to this tracker, there have been a few more cases, though by my count only one new case since the new year. But I very much doubt that any media source will be careful enough to provide an answer to this question, much less a consensus of media sources.

@NicoDelon we can use the power of math to figure it out.

29d

@jgyou yeah that’s what I did but it’d be nice to have a clear benchmark first.

bought Ṁ50 1,001-10k cases NO29d

Can we just use the CDC with archive.org to compare the number?

27d

@Fay42 those all sound like reasonable options, we can subtract last year’s numbers from the totals if we’re not given 2025 specific counts

1mo

Do those confirmed in 2024 count toward the total?

1mo

@NicoDelon hm, I don’t think so? Seems like it should be confirmed in 2025 only

1mo

@ian ok, that’s how I read the question but I wasn’t 100% sure given the odds.

2mo

What's the option for 100K+ cases?

2mo

@causal_agency edited the last answer

3mo

@jgyou so true, would be great to have a number market in this case!

3mo

@ian Worldwide or in the US?

3mo

@snazzlePop thanks, in the US

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