Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
Basic
2
๐22026
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if either of the following:
The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
At least 1,000 military personnel or at least 1 tank from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed (this can mean dispatched with intent to land but is blocked by taiwanese forces, or they make landfall) to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Invasion of solely the outlying islands (e.g. kinmen) do not count
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Decided to create a question for this: /MalachiteEagle/what-will-be-the-warning-signs-in-t-n66uC0yON5
Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
40% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
50% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
46% chance
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
22% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
39% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
19% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
21% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance