Will Vernon L. Smith reach age 100?
Will Vernon L. Smith reach age 100?
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I really hope so because his birthday is on January 1 which is New Year's Day making it be even more special. He's 97, but already surpassed Ernest "Fritz" Hollings who also has a January 1 or New Year's Day birthday who lived to 97. Charlie Munger, who was also born on January 1 or New Year's Day passed away at 99 being so close to 100. I am actually hoping that this is not the case for Vernon L. Smith, he deserves the 100th birthday celebration due to his New Year's Day birthday.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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