J.K. Rowling is a monumentally successful novelist mostly known for young adult novels like the Harry Potter series. She is also deeply transphobic and has spent a great deal of her time over the past few years making her opinions on trans issues known. The controversy surrounding her views has led many to consider her work in a new light. Will her work stand the test of time, or was the love for her novels based on nostalgia now muddled by social media tirades?
This market will resolve YES if any of the following are true on January 1, 2053:
In the previous 12 months (Jan-Dec 2052), a J.K. Rowling book sold at least 100,000 copies worldwide
In the previous 2 years (2050-2052) an article in one of the five most subscribed-to magazines listed a Rowling work in a 'best-of' list, or a list of classics (invalid if the list is a list of forgotten works, or works that used to be popular, etc.)
In the previous 10 years (2042-2052), Rowling was awarded a Newbury Award, a Nobel Prize in Literature or a Booker Prize
The market will resolve NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00“In the previous 12 months (Jan-Dec 2052), a J.K. Rowling book sold at least 100,000 copies worldwide”
This is going to be expensive to verify (at least at the moment it seems to be). I don’t think the answer to the title is no, but with these resolution criteria I’m not going to bet…
What are the five most subscribed to magazines? Do you mean Vogue, GQ, the Times something like that?
This is a classic example of a market whose resolution criteria could not be guessed from the title.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00