US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
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Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth starting in 2024, otherwise NO. (The starting year is defined as the year of the first of the consecutive quarters. For example, Q4 and Q1 of the following year would count.)
Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US. See
If BEA changes the way estimates are released or changed, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
May be preliminarily resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
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What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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