Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?
Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?
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Resolves YES if on May 26 2032 (10 years from the date this market opened), the value of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 > 3.5%. Resolves NO if <= 3.5%.
If this data source is not available, another equivalent one will be used.
For context, currently 10-year treasury yields are 2.75% and 30-year treasury yields are 2.99%: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/mortgage-rates-higher-in-5-years
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Would love to bet on this, but very little incentive to bet on something so far out to make ~$12 mana best-case when I could use that same mana to bet on other stuff and get far greater return in that 10 years (assuming I am decent at betting). :/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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