Will AI wipe out humanity before 2050, and if so when?
Will AI wipe out humanity before 2050, and if so when?
Basic
23
Ṁ3051
2050
93%
Not before 2050
4%
2030s
1.3%
2020s
1.7%
2040s

If AI wipes out humanity before 2050, resolves to the decade in which it happens, otherwise resolves to "Not before 2050"

See also:

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2050?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Note:

This market isn't a great way to predict the question because you can't collect your payout if AI does wipe out humanity. But the above questions were quite popular, and this one is more of an experiment in comparing how different market structures work here. For a non-market prediction that I believe is more likely to be accurate, see https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10721/when-will-ai-driven-human-extinction-happen/

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

The other AI doom markets assume that any scenario where AIs exist and humans don't is one where AI has wiped out humanity. Deliberately, accidentally, through action, or inaction.

This market is ambiguous. To provide a clearer comparison of market mechanics please can you align the wording with the other AI doom markets?

1y

You truly think that Metaculus market is more accurate? What's with the huge spike at 2300?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules