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Will another Star Wars movie be released before 2027?
Plus
17
Ṁ17052026
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a new Star Wars feature film is released before 2027, otherwise NO.
This includes both numbered films (e.g. Episode 9) and standalone films (e.g. Rogue One).
The release date is defined as the US release date as per IMDB, Wikipedia, etc.
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I don't like or care about Star Wars but my dad is absolutely obsessed. I badgered him on it and he said it's 50-50 either way, and wouldn't budge.
I trust my dad so I'm buying NO at 65, YES at 35.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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