Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?
Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ337
2028
86%
chance

For the purposes of this market, the coding assistant must be able to:

  • Be given a description of a feature to implement or bug to resolve in a pre-existing repository of meaningful size (ex: enterprise product).

  • Without any further guidance other than asking clarification questions about the feature request be able to write the code and test it to the point where it would be considered "production ready".

  • Submit and successfully pass code review.

Please note this market:

  • Purposefully excludes small repositories precisely to ensure the challenge of identifying exactly where the code needs to be modified is there.

  • Will resolve to Yes regardless of whether the repository is polyglot or not.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1mo

@singer I think we're not there yet. Very significant and promising progress has definitely been made, but if this had panned out at any significant scale we would be seeing it's effects broadly across the industry.

With today's information, it's likely this market will resolve as Yes by the deadline, but I'd feel hesitant declaring this to be the case today.

bought Ṁ50 YES9mo

@jbs How close to this would you say are the current ones like SWE-agent and Devin?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules