Will I run a marathon in 2024?
Will I run a marathon in 2024?
Plus
31
Ṁ8184Jan 2
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have not run a marathon before, but kind of want to try this year.
Resolves to YES if I run a distance of 26.2 miles in a single attempt. Does not have to be at an official race (but if it happens it likely will be).
I will only bet YES and will not sell any positions.
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bought Ṁ75 NO1y
@jcbmrshll based on these figures and your question description, let's just say I'm highly skeptical but would be very impressed if you did ;)
@diadematus this for example is a more bullish profile that I'm still shorting because training and running a full marathon is really hard https://manifold.markets/CrissmanLoomis/will-i-run-the-2023-osaka-marathon
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.