Which of the following will occur before Manifold's Daily Streak Ironman concludes?
Plus
19
Ṁ60542026
78%
GPT-next is released (OpenAI's next frontier model)
75%
Nintendo’s successor to the Switch is sold in the US
48%
GTA VI is released (for North American consoles)
39%
Ammon requests a required bet amount (1-3 Mana)
39%
Ammon pays at least the third place amount to all contestants
31%
Apple releases a phone with a folding screen
20%
Manifold announce that they are going to go defunct
20%
Apple releases a smart ring
18%
AGI is achieved (resolves according to Manifold's 'AGI when?' market)
15%
China invades Taiwan
6%
@snazzlePop sustains a major injury or dies while climbing a mountain
5%
A room temperature superconductor is discovered (and confirmed)
Resolved
YESJimmy Carter passes away
The Daily Streak Ironman can be found here:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/which-candidate-would-last-the-long?r=amlt
Participants must trade at least once every 36 hours or they are eliminated from the competition. There were 12 to begin with, now after almost half a year only 3 remain.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
How many days will the winner of the Daily Streak Ironman last?
Will my current streak on Manifold reach 2 years?
80% chance
To Ammon’s discretion, will the Daily Streak Ironman end because of a Manifold outage?
11% chance
[Daily Streak Ironman] Which candidate would last the longest? [40000 Mana prize]
Will my Manifold prediction streak remain unbroken through 2025?
34% chance
Will I make it to a 1000 day manifold streak?
80% chance
Will I extend my active daily streak here on manifold to 1,000 days?
71% chance
What number streak will I get to on Manifold?
When will Manifold resolve this bet?
Will any Manifold user ever hit a streak of 1000?
94% chance