Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
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Ṁ2562Dec 31
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warning, potentially subjective
First we had plain old GPTs, then we had instruct models, then we had chat models, then we had reasoning models
a model in the paradigm has to be top-3 in chatbot arena to count
will we get a new such thing by EOY?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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