Will Elon Musk spend a week in outer space?

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The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.

If Elon Musk spends 7 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market resolves YES. If he dies before this happens, this market resolves NO.

For purposes of this market, “Elon Musk” is only Elon Reeve Musk, former chairman of Tesla, born on June 28, 1971.

I will not bet in this market.

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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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