Duplicated from tailcalled's market, but with earlier close date:
It may later be succeeded by other technologies, but it should be a thing for a period of at least 6 months.
10% of people regularly doing it will serve as an anchor for the definition of "common", but I don't expect to have this clean data when resolving, and will be vaguely estimating based on this.
It may be wrapped in a no-code user interface, as long as there is still a very general coding AI behind it.
1,000
3.00A few days ago my mom asked me for help with something that could be solved with a bit of python, so I encouraged her to ask chatgpt to write a script and run it. She doesn't have an account, so the model was 4o-mini, and apparently you can't actually run the code without logging in. The code itself was no good, even after a few follow-up messages. I ended up using my own account with 4o. It still took some careful prompting and multiple follow-up messages to get something workable, and I had to read the code to point out issues. Not exactly a workflow that makes sense for non-programmers.
@ChrisGreene That said, I think that in reality, the other market is more optimistic than it should be. Scripting is going to always be beyond the level which most people are going to be bothered. If the AI can't figure out what you want, people aren't going to bother trying to teach it via scripting.
@Epsilon Probably not by itself. An individual could maybe do something like that and have it count, but the intent of the question (as I understand it; I'll try to stay as close to @tailcalled's original as I can) is to predict if people who cannot code themselves will be using generative AI to create and run code that would have required some creativity and skill in the past, for a wide variety of different tasks.