What year will we see alien technosignatures?
What year will we see alien technosignatures?
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4
Ṁ402200
2050
expected
1D
1W
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Looking out beyond our solar system, if there's something out there eventually we'll see it. Resolves to the year we finally spot something. If it takes a while to confirm, it still resolves to the year we detected it.
Resolves to 2000 if it ends up being some time earlier.
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I guess JGalt has a version of this that's been around for much longer. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/
I predict 2200+ years from now to never. Per grabby aliens math we're the sole intelligent species in this Hubble volume.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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